On Wed, 6 Aug 2008, David Wagner wrote:

quoted text
> As I recall, the basic stats looked like this: about 30% of zero-day 
> malware samples
> were detected on the first day they were released (and 70% weren't).
> The median number of days until a new malware sample was detected was
> about 40 days.  If you wanted hundreds of days, asymptotically McAfee was
> able to detect about 70% of the samples (and 30% were never detected).
> I expect the situation to get worse in the future, not better.

This is similar to the stats published by AusCert a couple of years back 
where they claimed that AV software failed to detect 80% of new malware:

<http://www.zdnet.com.au/news/security/soa/Eighty-percent-of-new-malware-defeats-antivirus/0,130061744,139263949,00.htm>

Interestingly, AusCert still describe up-to-date anti-virus software as 
being "essential", per http://www.auscert.org.au/render.html?it=6891

In any case, the above relates to Windows desktops -- we are yet to see 
a rationale for adding AV support to the Linux kernel.


- James
-- 
James Morris
<jmorris@namei.org>
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